- Threshing Day theories focus on the novella's 13 bonding stories and hidden reveals for Book 4.
- Biggest theory: Dragons, not venin, may be the true villains of the Empyrean series.
- Author confirmation: Rebecca Yarros says the novella is backstory, not vital to Book 4 — except a bonus Xaden chapter posted free on her website.
- No dragon POVs: Yarros confirmed dragons "know too much" to narrate.
- Key watchlist: Brenna, Dane and Cath, Jack Barlowe's true turning point, and second signets.
What Is Threshing Day? A Quick Refresher
Threshing Day is the defining event of the Empyrean series by Rebecca Yarros — the day first-year riders at Basgiath War College enter the valley and hope a dragon chooses them. The Threshing Day novella collects thirteen bonding stories tied to this ritual, and it has become a goldmine for fan theories about where the series is heading in Book 4.
Before diving into predictions, here is the core framework of how bonding works, which grounds nearly every theory in circulation:
| Bonding Method | How It Works | Key Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-selected bonding | A dragon has already chosen a cadet | Cadets follow instinct through the valley |
| Spontaneous choice | Dragons judge cadets on the spot | Cadet must prove worthy or interesting |
| Right of benefaction | Den leader grants permission to bond | Approval to bond, not a pre-arranged match |
| The absolute law | Dragons choose by private criteria | Humans have zero say in the pairing |
Video Highlights:
- Full recap of Violet's Threshing Day from chapter 13 of Fourth Wing
- Breakdown of Tairn and Andarna's double bonding
- Deep dive into the "dragons are the real villains" theory
- Predictions for which reveals the novella might contain
Rebecca Yarros has stated the novella is not vital for enjoying Book 4, but it provides backstory and "a couple of reveals." The bonus Xaden chapter, however, is considered essential — which is why Yarros uploaded it free to her website rather than keeping it behind the novella's paywall.
The Dragon Civil War Theory
The most ambitious Threshing Day theory argues that dragons are the true antagonists of the series, with venin serving as a distraction from a deeper conflict. The evidence fans cite is genuinely layered:
- In Fourth Wing, Violet's book of fairy tales "demonizes dragons" — an odd detail unless it preserves an older truth.
- Jack Barlowe tells Violet that power should belong to anyone strong enough to wield it, framing dragons as gatekeepers.
- The Irids describe the Empyrean as "misguided," not heroic.
- Per Professor Felix's Onyx Storm reveal, humans can channel magic directly from the source without dragons — meaning dragons need riders more than riders need dragons.
| Evidence Point | Source | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Demonized dragons in fairy tales | Fourth Wing | Older culture feared dragons |
| Humans can channel the source | Onyx Storm | Dragons are middlemen, not gatekeepers |
| Venin motivation is unsustainable | Reddit analysis (Babs) | Draining all magic ends in mutual death |
| Irids call Empyrean "misguided" | Onyx Storm | Dragon leadership has an agenda |
| No dragon POVs allowed | Yarros confirmation | "The dragons know too much" |
This remains unconfirmed speculation. The core logic — that dragons benefit from keeping venin around to prevent humans from wielding unchecked magic — is fan deduction, not canon. Treat it as a lens for rereading, not established lore.
Character Watchlist: The 13 Stories
The novella's thirteen POVs are the biggest source of Threshing Day theories. Fans have ranked the characters they most want — and the reveals each could deliver.
Brenna
- Most requested POV by far
- Fans believe he is venin and worked up the ranks
- His story could recontextualize Nolon, Jack, and the venin timeline
Dane and Cath
- Cath is confirmed male
- Sloan's line "someone like you shouldn't have this much power" fuels a hidden-signet theory
- Yarros hinted one dragon is lying about their name
Xaden
- Confirmed bonus chapter, posted free on Yarros's website
- Covers his turning and why Sgaeyl specifically chose him
- The only chapter confirmed as vital to Book 4
A popular TikTok-originated theory argues Jack turned venin before his duel with Violet — possibly even before Threshing Day, based on comments he made in the valley. If true, his day-one cruelty toward Violet on the parapet takes on new meaning.
Predicted Reveals, Ranked by Likelihood
Here is how the major Threshing Day theories stack up against what Yarros has actually confirmed:
| Rank | Theory | Likelihood | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xaden's choice by Sgaeyl has deeper meaning | Confirmed | Bonus chapter marked as vital |
| 2 | Family-line dragon bonds revealed | High | Sets up madness and second signets |
| 3 | Dane hides a second signet via Cath | Medium | Sloan's line supports it, but may wait for Book 4 |
| 4 | Cath is lying about his name | Medium | Yarros teased it at a Denver event, resolution likely in Book 4 |
| 5 | Dragon civil war setup | Low for novella | Too plot-vital; almost certainly Book 4 material |
| 6 | Nolin survived | Low | Fans want it, but Yarros rarely revives dead characters |
Read the bonus Xaden chapter first
Since Yarros confirmed it contributes directly to Book 4, start with the free chapter on her website before the twelve novella stories.
Track family-line bonds
Note which dragons bonded within direct family lines — this is the leading predictor for madness and second signet reveals.
Reread Jack's valley dialogue
Compare his Threshing Day comments against his later venin behavior to test the early-turning theory.
Flag dragon behavior inconsistencies
Watch for moments where dragons act against rider interests — breadcrumbs for the civil war arc.
Fans note the series has shown second signets but never yet shown bonded-rider madness. Someone has to break — popular picks include Aric (whose signet was only revealed at the end of Onyx Storm) and, under the Cath theory, Dane.
Theory Tracker Checklist
What to Verify While Reading:
- Confirm which dragons bonded within family lines
- Look for clues that Cath bonded Dane's mother or a relative
- Track any hint about when Jack Barlowe turned venin
- Note whether Tairn's age implies knowledge of Empyrean secrets
- Watch for Irid commentary on the Empyrean's true agenda
One emerging fan theory holds that Tairn — old but not on the Empyrean's "board of directors" — knows forbidden secrets and chose Violet precisely because she could stand up to the system. His line "I know who and what you are, Violet Sorrengail" is the theory's anchor text.
FAQ
Q: Is Threshing Day required reading before Book 4 of the Empyrean series?
Rebecca Yarros has confirmed the novella is not vital for enjoying Book 4, but it provides backstory and a couple of reveals. The bonus Xaden chapter is the exception — it is considered essential and is available free on the author's website.
Q: Do any Threshing Day stories include dragon POVs?
No. Yarros confirmed there will be no dragon POVs because 'the dragons know too much.' This restriction itself fuels the theory that dragons are hiding a major secret from riders.
Q: What is the strongest Threshing Day theory about the series villain?
The dragon civil war theory. It argues that dragons maintain control over magic by keeping venin as a threat, since humans who channel the source directly could overpower dragons. The Irids calling the Empyrean 'misguided' is a key supporting detail.
Q: Whose bonding story is most wanted by fans?
Brenna's story is the most requested, followed closely by Dane and Cath. Fans also hope for Sloane and Thoiret, Jack and Baide, Rhiannon, Liam and Deigh, and Lilith and Aims.